NWS Forecast Discussion
542
FXUS61 KCTP 050928
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
528 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Still a few showers/storms in the Laurels today, but dry and
becoming less humid elsewhere.
2) A fall preview on Sunday & Labor Day precedes another brief
uptick in heat and humidity next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Still a few showers/storms in the Laurels today,
but dry and becoming less humid elsewhere.
A quasi-stationary front is draped across Central PA this
morning, supporting a broken deck of stratocumulus clouds and a
few isolated showers. This front will continue to sag southwest
today thanks to a push of northeasterly winds at the surface.
To the southwest of this boundary in the Laurel Highlands, there
will still be a few rounds of showers and storms there today.
A complex of thunderstorms is moving southeast through Central
Ohio early this morning and is progged to bring showers/storms
to southwest PA this morning into the early afternoon.
An upper low will gradually impinge on northeast PA today, and
those relatively cooler temperatures aloft will support widespread
stratocumulus clouds. Highs this afternoon will still be a few
degrees warmer than average for this time of year, but dewpoints
will decrease this afternoon and evening. Considerable relief
arrives tonight as dewpoints and low temperatures drop into the
50s areawide (and touch the upper 40s in the northwest
mountains). There could be some fog tonight as well, especially
across the northeast part of the area.
-------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: A fall preview on Sunday & Labor Day precedes another
brief uptick in heat and humidity next week.
High pressure will build into the region tomorrow and Monday,
ushering in much-needed relief from an incredibly active start
to the month of September. Other than some morning valley fog,
the weather will be really nice for the Sunday and Labor Day
Monday. Highs mainly in the 70s and lows 45-55F both Sunday
night and Monday night will be ideal for outdoor activities.
Sunday could end up being mostly cloudy as the base of an upper
low rotates through the region and a few isolated showers are
possible. High pressure builds in on Monday, ensuring abundant
sunshine for Labor Day. There is a strong signal for widespread
valley fog on Monday morning with high pressure overhead
providing ideal conditions for optimal radiational cooling.
Surface high pressure moves east of us by Tuesday, which means
southwest winds will lead to an uptick in heat and humidity once
again. Upper level ridging will nudge into the northeast by the
middle of next week bringing continued dry weather. Heat index
values back in the 80s to low 90s will peak on Wednesday.
Fortunately, the "heat" looks short lived and we`ll see
temperatures cooling off again for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are likely to continue into mid morning across the
western airfields (BFD, JST, AOO, and UNV) thanks to a
combination of low clouds and reduced visibility. MVFR ceilings
will persist at AOO and UNV, while JST will likely bounce
between IFR and MVFR through daybreak. At BFD, breaks in the
cloud cover and moist ground will combine to produce some fog
with reduced cigs and vis. Any fog will quickly mix out within
90 minutes after sunrise Saturday with a light northerly breeze.
Conditions will improve areawide this afternoon, with VFR
expected to prevail everywhere eventually. JST will be the
slowest to improve as it will still be within range of passing
SHRA/TSRA into the afternoon. The probability of showers remains
below 30%, but amendments may be needed as confidence increases
in timing and impacts. With cool air aloft and a pair of weak
short wave troughs, cloud cover could be fairly widespread today
though ceilings should be primarily VFR.
Outlook...
Sun-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.
Wed...PM SHRA/TSRA possible in the northern tier.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff/Colbert
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
